freshbet Commentary: Thai politics once again in turmoil, after PM Srettha’s shock dismissal
SINGAPORE: The Thai Constitutional Court’s ruling on Wednesday (Aug 14) to dismiss Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin of the ruling Pheu Thai party for violating ethical guidelines surprised most political observers - including myself - who have been closely reading the tea leaves in the run-up to the court session.
It had seemed like Mr Srettha had amassed sufficient political insurance against a court-ordered dismissal, a move seen as favouring the military and conservative establishment.
Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, widely seen as de facto Pheu Thai chief, had met Mr Srettha’s predecessor and former coup leader Prayut Chan-o-cha on seemingly cordial terms only last week, at the funeral of Mr Srettha’s mother. Mr Srettha had also appointed legal expert Wissanu Krea-ngam, who had served as deputy prime minister in both Prayut administrations, in June to advise him on how to defend himself in the above court case.
Moreover, the same court just ordered earlier this month the dissolution of the opposition Move Forward Party (MFP), including a 10-year political ban for its popular former leader Pita Limjaroenrat. This meant that Pheu Thai would be less tempted to consider abandoning its conservative allies for an alternative governing coalition.
A DICEY POLITICAL ENVIRONMENTBut it was not to be. Mr Srettha became the fourth Thai prime minister in 16 years to be removed following rulings by the constitutional court.
His untimely political demise - just under a year in office - challenges at least three interrelated assumptions about the Thai political environment since the Pheu Thai-led coalition took power last year.
First, the alleged deal between Thaksin and the conservative elites would be fundamentally more fragile than originally assumed, mainly because the conservative bloc is internally at odds over whether to continue working with Thaksin. The ousted leader had returned to Thailand after 15 years of exile, hours before Mr Srettha was elected prime minister, which fed speculation of a deal.
Second, despite Pheu Thai’s co-existence with conservative elites in the ruling coalition, the level of paranoia and distrust felt by some in the latter group towards Thaksin would still be very high. This group is prepared to play out its differences in the open with other conservative factions which are more accommodative of Thaksin, which goes some way in explaining the seemingly schizophrenic treatment of the Pheu Thai-led coalition.
Third, the hope that Thaksin might be persuaded into entering genuine retirement is quickly dwindling.
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Commentary: Thailand has a new PM but Pheu Thai will have a political price to pay for it ALL EYES ON NEXT PRIME MINISTERThe first order of business after Mr Srettha’s dismissal will be to select his replacement.
The lower house is scheduled to meet on the morning of Friday (Aug 16) to hold a vote. The winning candidate must secure the support of at least 247 out of 493 sitting members. Unlike their predecessors last year, the new senators are no longer allowed to vote on who becomes prime minister.
On Thursday, ruling coalition parties wrapped up a day of intense negotiations by announcing that Pheu Thai leader and Thaksin’s youngest daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra would be its sole prime ministerial candidate.
With the coalition holding 314 seats in the lower house, Ms Paetongtarn appears to have a strong chance of winning the vote, barring last-minute abstentions by conservative-aligned parties such as the Bhumjaithai Party (BJT), Palang Pracharath (PPRP) and the United Thai Nation Party (UTN). All three have pledged their support for her candidacy, though they have likely also used the opportunity afforded by Mr Srettha’s downfall to push for policy concessions from Pheu Thai.
If for some reason Ms Paetongtarn fails at the hurdle, Pheu Thai is likely to nominate former justice minister Chaikasem Nitisiri for a second round of voting. Only if Pheu Thai has exhausted this option will other coalition parties get their chance to put forth their respective candidates for the vote.
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Commentary: Good reasons for Thailand’s economic stimulus UNCERTAINTY IN POLITICAL LANDSCAPE AND INVESTMENT CLIMATERegardless of the outcome of the prime ministerial vote, the new civilian administration will remain vulnerable to internal politicking and extra-parliamentary intervention. Mr Srettha’s ouster also portends a likely shift towards more, not less, conservative-military influence over politics in the coming years.
But his downfall is unlikely to spark large-scale protests. Public sympathy for Pheu Thai has diminished significantly over its betrayal of the now-dissolved MFP.
A further complication will be Thaksin’s political ambitions. The former prime minister could make provocative manoeuvres after his one-year jail term formally ends on Aug 31.
A Paetongtarn administration could supercharge his ambitions to reassert himself vis-à-vis the other coalition partners as well as the military. Thaksin’s two-decade long battle with the military for political supremacy seems set to continue, albeit within the confines of an uneasy alliance.
All this is unlikely to do Thailand any favours in terms of restoring investor confidence. With political fragility likely to persist, policy continuity will remain elusive in the areas of investment and the economy.
While the previous administration’s stimulus and tourism schemes appear likely to continue, there will be far more uncertainty around priority sectors for foreign investment, as well as the fate of current proposals to legalise casinos and decriminalise cannabis use.
So Thailand’s wait for a durable political system continues. The question is whether foreign investors will stick around long enough to see it come into being.
Harrison Cheng is a Director in risk consultancy firm Control Risks.freshbet